Market Sector Scanner: Key Points to Watch This Week: BOJ Keeps Buying Yen, but USD/JPY Impact Remains Limited
Last week’s market highlights included suspected BOJ intervention in USD/JPY, strong gains in the Nasdaq and Nikkei, and WTI oil slipping back below $100. This week’s outlook focuses on U.S. inflation and retail sales data, ongoing U.S.–Iran negotiations, and whether the BOJ may step in again if yen weakness continues. Last week’s top Fintokei payout was ¥1,394,882 on a Emerald ProTrader account. You can also watch the latest YouTube video, where David discusses the future of Fintokei.
USD/JPY was volatile last week as suspected Japanese intervention pushed the pair down toward 155 before it recovered to finish almost unchanged. Strong U.S. jobs data kept expectations for higher interest rates alive, making Fed rate cuts less likely. Stock markets stayed strong, with the Nasdaq rising for a sixth straight week and the Nikkei 225 jumping over 5% to a record high on AI and semiconductor optimism. WTI oil slipped back below $100 as markets watched for progress on a possible U.S.–Iran deal.
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Forex Market
USD/JPY
Last Week Recap
Another round of suspected Bank of Japan intervention to buy yen during the Golden Week holidays triggered several sharp moves lower in USD/JPY last week. However, strong U.S. economic data kept dollar demand supported, and the pair ended the week almost unchanged.
Technical Picture
The lower Bollinger Band triggered a short-term buy signal at the end of last week, but the 10-day moving average is now pointing lower and may act as resistance this week.
Outlook This Week
Although intervention appears to have had less impact than the Bank of Japan may have hoped, further action remains possible if the yen weakens again. Direction is difficult to judge at the moment, so fading large moves and taking advantage of short-term volatility may be the best approach.
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GBP/JPY
Last Week Recap
GBP/JPY tested recent lows last week as the Bank of Japan appeared to buy yen again. However, support held as the pound strengthened toward the end of the week, helped by gains against the U.S. dollar.
Technical Picture
The lower Bollinger Band provided support last week, but with the downward-pointing 10-day moving average now close to current prices, sellers may return if the pair moves higher.
Outlook This Week
Resistance around last week’s highs and the 10-day moving average could keep GBP/JPY moving sideways this week. This may create short-term range trading opportunities rather than a clear trend.
EUR/USD
Last Week Recap
EUR/USD moved marginally higher last week as falling WTI oil prices weighed on the U.S. dollar during quiet trading conditions.
Technical Picture
The 10-day moving average has turned slightly higher, but with the Bollinger Bands narrowing, short-term range trading conditions may continue.
Outlook This Week
EUR/USD is not showing a strong trend at the moment, so range trading may be the best approach in the week ahead.
Equities
U.S. Stock Market
Last Week Recap
Continued optimism around AI-related stocks and strong earnings reports pushed the Nasdaq to new record highs last week. Hopes for a quick end to the war in Iran also helped support risk sentiment.
Technical Picture
The uptrend remains extremely strong, with the market closing the week above the upper Bollinger Band. However, the large gap from the 10-day moving average suggests the Nasdaq may be overbought in the short term.
Outlook This Week
Although the market looks overbought in the short term, it may be better for short-term traders to wait for negative news and a move back below the upper Bollinger Band before looking for selling opportunities. For medium-term traders, waiting for a pullback closer to the 10-day moving average may offer better buying opportunities.
Commodities
Gold
Last Week Recap
Gold recovered some of its recent losses last week as weaker WTI oil prices helped pull long-term U.S. interest rates lower, which supported gold.
Technical Picture
The 10-day moving average is pointing sideways, while the Bollinger Bands are also narrowing. This suggests range trading conditions may continue in the short term.
Outlook This Week
Last week’s recovery broke the recent downtrend, so longer-term traders may return as buyers in the coming weeks. However, in the short term, range trading remains the preferred strategy.
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This week, U.S. inflation and retail sales data will be important for markets, as traders look for signs that higher oil prices are affecting consumer demand and price pressure. WTI oil is also likely to stay sensitive to ongoing U.S.–Iran negotiations, with markets still hoping for progress toward ending the conflict. Equity markets will try to build on recent gains, while USD/JPY could remain volatile as traders test whether the Bank of Japan has finished intervening or is still prepared to defend the yen around the 157 area.
