Market Sector Scanner: Key Points to Watch: Iran–U.S. negotiations in focus, USD/JPY remains under intervention watch below 160

Markets remained focused on Iran–U.S. talks, with some progress reported but important issues still unresolved. USD/JPY moved higher as the Bank of Japan took no action and traders continued to focus on the wide interest rate gap between Japan and the U.S. WTI oil slipped back toward $100 as hopes for a deal reduced some supply fears, while U.S. stocks ended the week higher. The Dow hit a new record high and the S&P 500 extended its winning streak. 

Scan for opportunities on:

• Forex market (major currency pairs)
• Equities
• Commodities (gold)

Forex Market

USD/JPY

Last Week Recap
USD/JPY was relatively quiet last week, but it continued to test higher as speculators were disappointed by the lack of intervention from the Bank of Japan. The new Federal Reserve Chair also suggested that interest rate cuts could take longer than expected because inflation remains high, which supported USD/JPY.

Technical Picture
The 10-day moving average is pointing higher, showing that the short-term trend is still positive. USD/JPY is also trading near the middle of the Bollinger Bands, with the next key resistance level around 160.

Outlook This Week
USD/JPY still looks unlikely to move clearly above 160, and quiet market conditions may make short-term trading difficult. Medium-term traders could look for selling opportunities ahead of resistance, while short-term traders may prefer to wait for higher volatility before entering new trades.

GBP/JPY

Last Week Recap
GBP/JPY rebounded at the start of last week as U.K. political tensions cooled. This helped sterling recover some of its recent losses, even though U.K. economic data was mixed and did not give the market a strong direction.

Technical Picture
The market bounced from support near the lower Bollinger Band and moved back above the 10-day moving average. This suggests that the recent short-term weakness may be over for now, although the overall picture is still not strongly bullish.

Outlook This Week
There is still a risk of renewed selling if U.K. political problems return, especially if leadership concerns increase again. For now, GBP/JPY looks more likely to trade sideways, so range trading opportunities may be the preferred strategy this week.

EUR/USD

Last Week Recap
EUR/USD continued to test lower last week as signs that U.S. interest rates may stay high encouraged more selling. The wide gap between U.S. and European interest rates remained a key pressure point, making the U.S. dollar more attractive than the euro.

Technical Picture
EUR/USD remains in a downtrend, with the 10-day moving average pointing lower. However, support near the lower Bollinger Band is still helping to limit larger falls for now.

Outlook This Week
The current downtrend remains strong, so selling into strength looks like the best strategy in the current environment. However, a resolution to the conflict with Iran could trigger a quick rebound if WTI oil prices fall sharply.

Equities

U.S. Stock Market

Last Week Recap
The Nasdaq saw some selling at the start of last week, but buyers returned as sentiment remained positive toward technology stocks, especially AI-related companies.

Technical Picture
The move below the 10-day moving average was only temporary, which confirmed that the uptrend remains strong. However, the failure to reach a new record high is a slight concern and suggests some short-term hesitation.

Commodities

Gold

Last Week Recap
Gold remained under pressure last week as expectations for higher U.S. interest rates continued to weigh on the market. WTI oil also stayed around $100, keeping inflation concerns high, while the new Fed Chair suggested that rate cuts may be difficult with inflation still elevated.

Technical Picture
The lower Bollinger Band provided support and prevented a larger fall below last month’s lows. However, the 10-day moving average is starting to point lower, suggesting that the recent range trading conditions may be close to ending.

Outlook This Week
In the current environment, gold looks likely to remain under pressure, so selling into strength or selling a break below recent lows looks best. However, an end to the Iran conflict could trigger a quick rebound if risk sentiment improves.

Expect a quiet start to the week, with holidays in the U.K. and U.S. and no major economic announcements until Thursday. As a result, the outcome of negotiations between Iran and the U.S. is likely to be the main focus for markets.