What events will move the markets in October 2026?
Three events will move the markets the most in October 2026: US CPI inflation on October 14, the Fed meeting on October 28 and the ECB meeting on October 29. They could significantly move the US dollar, the euro, gold, silver, Bitcoin and stock indices. Fintokei allows news trading without restrictions – read these events correctly and you could be one step closer to completing your challenge.
What is coming to the markets this October?
Three major events. Two central banks in two days. And potentially very different market reactions.
And as always with fundamental trading, your best friend is the economic calendar. The key is not the number itself, but how far it differs from what the market expected.
Plus, until the end of October, you can get a second ProTrader challenge completely free with your ProTrader challenge: thanks to the ProTrader Combo offer.
October 14: US CPI inflation
October kicks off with US inflation for September – one of the most closely watched data points of the month.
In both July and August, year-on-year inflation came in at 3.4%. The market will be watching closely to see whether inflation has moved even higher. The higher the number, the bigger the chance that the Fed keeps raising interest rates.
What should you watch?
- Year-on-year CPI: whether inflation stays above 3% or keeps rising.
- Month-on-month CPI: how fast prices rose in the last month alone.
- Core inflation: it excludes the more volatile food and energy prices and shows how deeply inflation is rooted in the economy.
The headline number matters, but the key point is how far the actual result differs from market expectations.
What could happen?
If inflation comes in significantly higher than expected, markets may start pricing in a greater chance of further rate hikes.
That could potentially mean:
- a stronger US dollar,
- higher US bond yields,
- pressure on gold and silver,
- pressure on Bitcoin,
- high volatility across US stock indices.
Lower inflation, on the other hand, could ease some concerns about further rate hikes and trigger the opposite reaction.
Which markets should you watch?
Mainly EUR/USD, USD/JPY, gold, silver, BTC, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.
And remember: the first reaction after the release may not last. The market can completely reverse it within minutes.
💡 Fintokei tip
Want to better understand inflation and how traders approach it? Check out the blog
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October 28: Fed meeting
And then comes the main event. The Federal Reserve meeting will be the most important event of October.
In September, the Fed raised interest rates for the first time since 2023. Current market expectations point more towards a pause, but the odds could still change significantly before the end of the month. And that is exactly where the room for surprise lies.
What should you watch?
- the interest rate decision,
- the Fed statement,
- the press conference of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
The tone of the Fed's communication can matter more than the decision itself. A single sentence about what the Fed will do in December can move the market more than a pause everyone expected.
What could happen?
If the Fed unexpectedly raises rates or clearly signals that more hikes are coming, it could mean:
- a stronger US dollar,
- higher US bond yields,
- pressure on gold and silver,
- pressure on Bitcoin,
- high volatility across US stock indices.
If the Fed signals that it is done with rate hikes for now, the market reaction could go the other way.
Which markets should you watch?
Pretty much everything. But USD, gold, silver, US indices and cryptocurrencies tend to be the most sensitive.
Watch the clock, too. Europe switches to winter time on October 25, while the US does so only on November 1. That is why the Fed decision will come out at 7:00 PM CET, not at 8:00 PM as usual. The press conference follows half an hour later, and volatility can continue well into the evening.
💡 Fintokei tip
Want to learn how to trade central bank meetings? Read the article
October 29: ECB meeting
Just one day after the Fed, the European Central Bank meets as well.
The ECB is also expected to pause and wait. But market expectations for the December meeting already point to another rate hike. Eurozone inflation reached 3.2% in August, so current interest rates are not doing much to slow the economy down.
What should you watch?
- the interest rate decision,
- the press conference of ECB President Christine Lagarde,
- any hints about what the ECB is planning for December.
Just like with the Fed, what is said at the press conference can matter more than the decision itself.
What could happen?
If the ECB unexpectedly raises rates, it could mean:
- a stronger euro,
- high volatility across European stock indices.
If the ECB signals that it is in no hurry to raise rates further, the euro could weaken.
Which markets should you watch?
Mainly EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, the DAX and Euro Stoxx 50.
And because the ECB meets less than a day after the market starts digesting the Fed's decision, the move on EUR/USD could be even wilder.
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News trading without restrictions
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That means the challenge rules do not automatically keep you out of the market when CPI, the Fed or the ECB decision hits.
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The offer is valid until October 31, 2026, and each trader can use it only once.
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Buy a ProTrader $50,000 challenge with code COMBOTRADER. Get 10% off and a ProTrader $5,000 challenge for free.
