Market Sector Scanner: U.S. CPI, Retail Sales and USD/JPY

Oil prices fell after news of an earlier release of oil reserves before rising sharply on reports of tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and possible further U.S. strikes against Iran. Other markets were mostly quiet, although U.S. stocks gained. The dollar stayed strong and gold remained under pressure as the Fed's meeting minutes pointed to another possible rate increase by year-end. U.S. consumer sentiment fell to 46.3, below the expected 47.8. In Japan, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi tried to ease concerns about government finances.

Key Events Calendar

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Market Outlook

Forex Market

USD/JPY

Last Week Recap
USD/JPY stayed quiet but edged higher as markets focused on the possibility of further U.S. interest rate increases.

Technical Picture
Prices remain above the 10-day moving average, which is a positive sign, but are still near the middle of the Bollinger Bands and the key 158 level.

Outlook This Week
This week's U.S. inflation data will be important as traders look for clues about the next major move. For now, buying weakness looks like the best strategy.

GBP/JPY

Last Week Recap
GBP/JPY stayed in a narrow range, with little U.K. news to move prices. Traders focused on U.S. and Japanese interest rates and the risk of Japanese intervention.

Technical Picture
The Bollinger Bands are narrow and the 10-day moving average is flat. This suggests prices could stay in a range until new information gives the market direction.

Outlook This Week
Avoid trying to predict the next big move. For now, buying near support and selling near resistance looks like the best approach.

EUR/USD

Last Week Recap
EUR/USD remained under pressure as traders focused on further U.S. rate increases, which could widen the interest rate gap between the U.S. and Europe.

Technical Picture
The lower Bollinger Band provided short-term support, but the medium-term downtrend remains strong, with the 10-day moving average pointing lower.

Outlook This Week
EUR/USD held support several times last week, suggesting it could move sideways ahead of this week's important U.S. inflation data.

Equities

U.S. Stock Market

Last Week Recap
The Nasdaq moved higher early in the week as confidence in AI-related stocks continued to return. However, it ended little changed as concerns about high oil prices and inflation remained.

Technical Picture
The 10-day moving average continues to provide support, suggesting the uptrend could continue. The Bollinger Bands also point to a positive outlook.

Outlook This Week
The uptrend remains in place, and higher U.S. interest rates may already be priced in. Buying opportunities remain the focus as long as prices stay above the 10-day moving average.

Commodities

Gold

Last Week Recap
Gold fell early in the week as expectations of higher U.S. interest rates encouraged selling. Long-term buyers returned below $4,100, helping prices recover toward the end of the week.

Technical Picture
The weekly close above the 10-day moving average and support at the lower Bollinger Band are positive signs, suggesting prices could move sideways or higher.

Outlook This Week
Long-term buying, possibly including central banks, suggests the recent downtrend may be coming to an end. Buying weakness looks like the best approach this week.

Trading may start slowly with holidays in Japan and the U.S. on Monday. This week's main focus is U.S. CPI and retail sales, which will offer clues about inflation and consumer demand. Strong data could lift USD/JPY and raise the chance of Japanese intervention. Traders will also watch Middle East news and oil prices.