Marker Sector Scanner: U.S. Jobs Data, Rate Expectations and Yen Intervention Risk

U.S. manufacturing PMI reached a 59-month high, while several Fed officials supported tighter policy. U.S. long-term interest rates rose, and the chance of an October rate hike climbed to around 70%, lifting the dollar against the yen. The yen later recovered after Japan's finance minister said U.S. and Japanese leaders had discussed its weakness. Meanwhile, U.S.–Iran peace talks eased oil supply concerns, pushing WTI below $100. The U.S. and China extended their trade truce to January 10, 2027. U.S. stocks rose slightly, while the Nikkei gained strongly after Japan's three-day holiday.

Key Events Calendar

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Market Outlook

Forex Market

USD/JPY

Last Week Recap
USD/JPY rose for most of the week as strong U.S. PMI data increased expectations of an October rate hike. However, comments from Japanese and U.S. officials about yen weakness prompted a pullback late in the week.

Technical Picture
The uptrend remains intact, with the 10-day moving average pointing higher. Prices are trading near the middle of the Bollinger Bands following the recent pullback.

Outlook This Week
The interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan continues to support buying interest despite verbal intervention. The focus remains on potential buying opportunities around the 10-day moving average.

GBP/JPY

Last Week Recap
GBP/JPY was quiet for most of the week as the dollar strengthened against both the pound and the yen. Strong U.K. data had little impact, with markets focused on rising U.S. rate expectations. Verbal intervention over yen weakness pushed GBP/JPY lower late in the week, leaving it near recent lows.

Technical Picture
The close below the 10-day moving average suggests the recent recovery has lost momentum. GBP/JPY is now trying to hold above its early September lows.

Outlook This Week
Holding above the September lows looks likely in the short term, which could create range-trading opportunities. The focus will be on buying near support and selling near resistance, while watching for a break below the range.

EUR/USD

Last Week Recap
Stronger-than-expected U.S. manufacturing data triggered a sharp sell-off in EUR/USD. Traders raised their expectations for U.S. interest rates, pushing the pair back toward its July lows.

Technical Picture
The downtrend remains strong, with EUR/USD trading below the lower Bollinger Band for most of the week. However, Friday's recovery above the lower band triggered a potential short-term buy signal.

Outlook This Week
The move back above the lower Bollinger Band suggests a short-term recovery is possible. For medium-term trades, a rebound toward the 10-day moving average could offer a selling opportunity in line with the broader downtrend.

Equities

U.S. Stock Market

Last Week Recap
The Nasdaq reached another record high despite expectations of higher U.S. interest rates, supported by demand for Microsoft and other AI-related technology stocks.

Technical Picture
The uptrend remains strong, with the 10-day moving average pointing higher. However, the upper Bollinger Band is acting as short-term resistance.

Outlook This Week
The Nasdaq's strength despite rising rate expectations suggests the uptrend could continue. Pullbacks toward the 10-day moving average may offer buying opportunities.

Commodities

Gold

Last Week Recap
Strong U.S. economic data and rising expectations of higher U.S. interest rates encouraged speculative selling in gold last week. However, central bank buying helped limit the losses.

Technical Picture
Gold continues to find support near its September lows and the lower Bollinger Band. However, the downward-sloping 10-day moving average is keeping prices under pressure.

Outlook This Week
Gold has held up well despite rising U.S. rate expectations. Weaker U.S. data could create buying opportunities, while a move above the 10-day moving average would strengthen the case for a recovery.

With U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday and the Core PCE Price Index on Wednesday, the focus this week will be squarely on U.S. data. Strong figures could push October rate hike expectations even higher, supporting the dollar and putting further pressure on gold and EUR/USD. The RBA rate decision on Tuesday will also be watched closely, while verbal intervention risk around USD/JPY remains a key factor. U.S. stocks may continue to defy rate expectations if AI-driven demand stays strong.