Market Sector Scanner – U.S. Stocks Rally to Record Highs, Oil Weakens as Traders Watch Tariff Talks
Tech stocks pushed U.S. equities to new highs last week, while oil fell as Middle East tensions eased. Markets now shift focus to U.S.–Japan tariff negotiations and the Fed’s meeting minutes for clues on the next rate cut. A quiet news week could make technical signals more important.
U.S. stocks were the most active market last week, with tech shares pushing the S&P 500 to record highs and the Dow nearing its own peak. Strong June jobs data — with 147,000 new jobs and a drop in unemployment to 4.1% — boosted confidence in the economy. The U.S. dollar started the week lower but rebounded as long-term interest rates rose on the back of the solid employment report. Attention also turned to trade, as the July 9 deadline for the U.S. tariff freeze approached without a deal between the U.S. and Japan, raising concerns about new tariffs. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank would “wait and learn more” before making any rate decisions, pushing back against calls from former President Trump for steep cuts and emphasizing a cautious, data-driven approach focused on inflation.
Scan for opportunities on:
Key Events Calendar for July 7 – 11
Market Sector Scanner
Forex Market
USD/JPY
Last Week Recap:
USD/JPY recovered last week, supported by stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data and solid buying around the 143 level. U.S.–Japan trade negotiations remained a key focus, especially as the Bank of Japan considers raising rates while the U.S. Federal Reserve leans toward cutting them.
Technical Picture:
The lower Bollinger Band acted as support, helping to limit downside, but with the 10-day moving average still trending lower, further gains may be limited. Overall, the pair remains in a range between 143 and 146.
Outlook This Week:
With Bollinger Bands flattening and few major economic events on the calendar, range trading is likely to continue. Markets are waiting for a clearer outcome from U.S.–Japan trade talks before committing to a new direction.
GBP/JPY
Last Week Recap:
GBP/JPY pulled back last week as concerns about the U.K. government’s finances and rumors that Chancellor Rachel Reeves might be replaced caused uncertainty. The pair lost strength just before reaching the key 200 level.
Technical Picture:
Prices fell below the 10-day moving average, and technical signals now suggest sideways movement. The market is settling into a 195 to 198 range.
Outlook This Week:
With quiet conditions expected, further downside is possible. Selling opportunities may be the best strategy as GBP/JPY remains under pressure.
EUR/JPY
Last Week Recap:
EUR/JPY extended its strong performance last week, breaking above the key 170 resistance level. The pair was lifted by stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data, which boosted overall risk appetite and supported euro buying.
Technical Picture:
The uptrend remains strong, with the 10-day moving average providing reliable support. The pair is not yet overbought, as the upper Bollinger Band remains above current price levels, suggesting room for further upside.
Outlook This Week:
The breakout above 170 is a positive short-term signal, and higher levels are possible. However, if the market drops back below 170 and the 10-day moving average, medium-term traders may look for selling opportunities.
AUD/JPY
Last Week Recap:
AUD/JPY had another quiet week, briefly pushing higher after strong U.S. employment data. However, heavy selling near the 95 resistance level caused the pair to retreat, ending the week little changed.
Technical Picture:
The pair remains stuck in a tight 91.50–95.00 range, with narrowing Bollinger Bands suggesting continued range-bound conditions in the short term.
Outlook This Week:
Another rejection at the 95 resistance level could be a bearish signal for medium-term traders to consider selling. For short-term traders, range trading between support and resistance remains the preferred strategy.
NZD/JPY
Last Week Recap:
NZD/JPY once again tested resistance at 88 last week, as strong U.S. equities supported risk appetite and pushed the pair toward its 2025 highs. However, resistance held firm as the market waited for the next major news driver.
Technical Picture:
The 88 level and the upper Bollinger Band continue to cap gains, with traders showing caution in quiet market conditions.
Outlook This Week:
With resistance at 88 still intact, range trading between 86 and 88 remains the preferred short-term strategy.
EUR/USD
Last Week Recap:
EUR/USD’s strong rally paused last week as stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data and comments from Fed Chair Powell — signaling a wait-and-see approach on rate cuts — brought sellers back into the market.
Technical Picture:
The upper Bollinger Band triggered a sell signal, but the 10-day moving average continues to slope upward and is acting as support, keeping the overall trend bullish.
Outlook This Week:
EUR/USD is no longer overbought, and with the U.S. dollar still under pressure, further gains are likely as long as the pair holds above the 10-day moving average.
GBP/USD
Last Week Recap:
GBP/USD came under heavy selling pressure last week as growing concerns about the U.K. government’s finances and the possibility of future tax increases weighed on sentiment, raising fears of a potential drag on economic growth.
Technical Picture:
The pair is now facing resistance at the upper Bollinger Band, and the move below the 10-day moving average suggests a shift to sideways or lower price action in the short term.
Outlook This Week:
While concerns about U.K. public finances may prove temporary and allow the uptrend to resume, the short-term outlook remains uncertain. For now, sideways trading looks more likely.
Equities
U.S. Stock Market
Last Week Recap:
U.S. equities surged to record highs last week, led by strong gains in technology stocks. Optimism over future U.S. interest rate cuts and the absence of negative headlines encouraged investors to keep buying.
Technical Picture:
The S&P 500 has been testing the upper Bollinger Band for the past two weeks, which is now acting as resistance within the current strong uptrend.
Outlook:
With markets awaiting developments on U.S. tariff negotiations, the uptrend may pause this week. A period of sideways to slightly lower trading is likely in the short term.
Japan Equities
Last Week Recap:
The Nikkei 225 struggled to follow U.S. equities higher last week, as strong resistance at 40,000円 and the lack of a trade agreement between the U.S. and Japan limited gains and kept buyers cautious.
Technical Picture:
A sell signal appeared early in the week as the index moved back below the upper Bollinger Band, leading to a pullback toward the 10-day moving average.
Outlook This Week:
With 40,000円 continuing to act as firm resistance and no clear outcome from trade negotiations, focusing on selling opportunities appears to be the best strategy while the market stays below 40,000円.
Commodities
Gold
Last Week Recap:
Gold found support last week after recent losses, with strong underlying demand and a weaker U.S. dollar helping to steady the market. While stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data created some late-week pressure, gold still managed to post small gains by the close.
Technical Picture:
The market is currently trading near the middle of the Bollinger Bands, with the 10-day moving average trending slightly lower as prices search for direction.
Outlook This Week:
Despite rising stock markets, gold has remained relatively firm—a positive sign for bullish traders. For now, range trading between $3,250 and $3,350 appears to be the best strategy, with potential for a sharp upside move if unexpected news hits the market.
Crude Oil
Last Week Recap:
Crude oil found support at $65 last week, despite continued easing of Middle East tensions. Stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data briefly lifted sentiment by reducing concerns over a slowdown in U.S. demand. However, the rebound was short-lived, and prices quickly turned lower again.
Technical Picture:
The 10-day moving average is pointing downward, signaling further downside risk as the market approaches the key $65 support level. Bollinger Bands remain wide, reflecting the recent high volatility.
Outlook This Week:
A break below $65 looks increasingly likely this week, and selling opportunities may offer the best strategy in the short term. Resistance is seen around $70, with traders remaining sensitive to any new developments from the Middle East.
This week should be quiet, with only a few major economic events. Markets will focus on U.S.–Japan tariff talks and whether the tariff freeze will be extended to August 1. The Fed’s meeting minutes could give clues about when the next U.S. rate cut might happen. With little news expected, technical analysis may become more important during the slower summer trading season.
