Market Sector Scanner – Markets Brace for August Tariffs: Dollar Strengthens, Gold Holds
President Trump extended the tariff deadline and raised rates on key partners, pushing the dollar higher and weighing on equities. Gold stayed firm as trade worries returned. Traders now await U.S. inflation data and updates from U.S. trade negotiations.
President Trump extended the U.S. tariff deadline to August and announced higher tariffs: 30% on EU goods, 35% on Canadian imports, and 25% on Japanese products starting August 1. This pushed the U.S. dollar higher, as rising tariffs are expected to increase inflation and make it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. U.S. and Japanese stocks dipped slightly on profit-taking. Bitcoin jumped to record highs on strong buying from institutions and ETF hopes, while gold rose at the end of the week due to growing concerns about trade tensions. The Fed’s June meeting minutes showed most members want to wait for clearer signs of inflation and the impact of tariffs before deciding on rate cuts.
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Key Events Calendar for July 14 – 18
Market Sector Scanner
Forex Market
USD/JPY
Last Week Recap:
USD/JPY had a strong week as concerns about rising U.S. tariffs pushed inflation expectations higher. This reduced the likelihood of early U.S. rate cuts while also making it harder for the Bank of Japan to raise rates, encouraging buying throughout the week.
Technical Picture:
The upper Bollinger Band is now acting as short-term resistance for USD/JPY, but with the 10-day moving average trending higher, buyers are likely to remain confident on pullbacks. Overall, bullish momentum is intact for now.
Outlook This Week:
The pair looks slightly overbought in the short term, so waiting for a pullback may offer better buying opportunities later in the week. Key support is seen at 146 and 145, while resistance stands at 148 and 149.
GBP/JPY
Last Week Recap:
GBP/JPY resumed its recent uptrend last week as yen weakness pushed the pair toward the key 200 level. However, ongoing concerns about the U.K. economy prevented a clear breakout, and gains stalled just below resistance.
Technical Picture:
The upper Bollinger Band and resistance at 200 triggered a sell signal, sending the pair back toward support near the 10-day moving average. With the average still sloping upward, the broader trend remains bullish.
Outlook This Week:
Resistance at 200 remains firm, but with the yen still under pressure, selling momentum is limited. Range trading between 197 and 200 looks likely, offering both buy and sell opportunities for short-term traders.
EUR/JPY
Last Week Recap:
EUR/JPY posted its 7th consecutive weekly gain as the strong uptrend continued. The move was driven by renewed yen weakness, with traders expecting the Bank of Japan to delay rate hikes due to concerns over U.S. tariffs.
Technical Picture:
EUR/JPY continues to test the upper Bollinger Band, which is acting as short-term resistance. However, the 10-day moving average remains a strong support level in this ongoing uptrend.
Outlook This Week:
At some point, the uptrend is likely to end. For medium-term traders, selling near the upper Bollinger Band or waiting for a break below the 10-day moving average may offer the best opportunities.
AUD/JPY
Last Week Recap:
AUD/JPY finally broke above resistance last week, surging higher after the Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates steady. This decision encouraged strong buying and pushed the pair sharply higher.
Technical Picture:
After a long period of consolidation, the pair broke through the key 95 resistance level. The price moved easily above the upper Bollinger Band, opening the way for a potential move toward the 100 level.
Outlook This Week:
The trend is now clearly bullish, but the market looks overbought in the short term. Both short- and medium-term traders may find better opportunities by waiting for a pullback closer to the 10-day moving average before entering new long positions.
NZD/JPY
Last Week Recap:
NZD/JPY pushed above the 88 level last week as the yen weakened broadly across the board. However, gains were modest, as overall market conditions remained quiet and lacking strong momentum.
Technical Picture:
The upper Bollinger Band acted as resistance, and the bands remain narrow—signaling continued low volatility and hesitation among short-term traders.
Outlook This Week:
Last week’s move was encouraging, but low volatility still limits short-term trading potential. Medium-term traders, however, may find buying opportunities this week as the overall trend remains positive.
EUR/USD
Last Week Recap:
EUR/USD fell last week as the U.S. threatened higher tariffs on the EU, and the dollar strengthened on concerns that inflation could stay elevated.
Technical Picture:
The pair has shifted into a short-term downtrend, with the 10-day moving average now pointing lower. Initial support is forming around the June highs near 1.1625.
Outlook This Week:
EUR/USD has rallied significantly in recent weeks, and a short-term pullback looks likely. If the pair stays below the 10-day moving average, selling opportunities may emerge as the dollar continues to recover.
GBP/USD
Last Week Recap:
GBP/USD continued its decline last week after weaker-than-expected U.K. GDP data put pressure on the pair. In addition, rising expectations that the U.S. will delay interest rate cuts further weighed on GBP/USD sentiment.
Technical Picture:
The market is now approaching the lower Bollinger Band, which may limit further downside in the short term. However, the medium-term outlook remains weak, as the 10-day moving average continues to slope downward.
Outlook This Week:
A short-term rebound is possible, but with the overall trend still bearish, selling into strength may be the best strategy for medium-term traders.
Equities
U.S. Stock Market
Last Week Recap:
U.S. equities ended the week lower as investors took profits and reacted to renewed concerns over trade policy, following President Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on multiple trading partners.
Technical Picture:
The S&P 500 is now hovering near its 10-day moving average. A clear break below this level could signal the end of the strong three-week rally and open the door to deeper short-term corrections.
Outlook:
With uncertainty around trade negotiations rising, the market is likely to trade sideways or lower in the near term. Watch the 10-day moving average closely—if it breaks, further weakness is likely.
Japan Equities
Last Week Recap:
The Nikkei remained below the key 40,000円 resistance level last week, as U.S.–Japan trade negotiations showed no signs of progress. Sentiment stayed cautious, and even a weaker yen failed to lift the index. Momentum continues to look weak overall.
Technical Picture:
The 10-day moving average is now pointing lower, signaling a short-term downtrend, as the 40,000円 resistance level remains too strong for the Nikkei to break.
Outlook This Week:
With no progress in trade talks, the Nikkei is likely to stay under pressure this week. Selling opportunities may be favored unless there is a surprise breakthrough in negotiations between Japan and the U.S.
Commodities
Gold
Last Week Recap:
Gold began the week under pressure as strong equity markets reduced demand for safe-haven assets. However, renewed trade tensions brought buyers back in, helping gold rebound and finish the week near its highs—even with a stronger U.S. dollar.
Technical Picture:
Bollinger Bands are beginning to narrow as the market settles into a range. The 10-day moving average is starting to slope upward, following the strong weekly close.
Outlook This Week:
Although gold remains range-bound, ongoing delays in trade negotiations are likely to support prices at lower levels. The $3,250 to $3,400 range is expected to hold this week. Selling near the top of the range or waiting for a dip may provide the best trading opportunities.
Crude Oil
Last Week Recap:
Crude oil attracted strong buying interest near the key $65 support level last week, despite easing Middle East tensions and ongoing uncertainty around trade negotiations. This demand helped stabilize prices.
Technical Picture:
Bollinger Bands remain extremely wide due to recent volatility. The successful defense of the $65 level has led the 10-day moving average to begin sloping higher—an encouraging sign for medium-term bulls.
Outlook This Week:
The recent price action looks more constructive, with the 10-day moving average turning upward. While the market remains range-bound between $65 and $70 in the short term, stronger buying interest at support suggests potential for further gains if sentiment improves.
This week may bring a rise in market volatility after a relatively calm period, as several key events come into focus. Trade talks between the U.S. and its major partners — Canada, the EU, and Japan — are expected to generate headlines, with tariff deadlines approaching and no clear signs of progress. At the same time, key U.S. economic data, including inflation and retail sales, could significantly influence market expectations around interest rates.
